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RX Junior
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Mich.
Posts: 10
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->On Saturday, our wagers include two bets on Friesan Fire to Win and to Place, and an Exacta Box on Friesan Fire and Rachel Alexandra.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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RX Junior
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Mich.
Posts: 10
</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_6687220 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid"><!-- icon and title -->
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->On Saturday, our wagers include two bets on Friesan Fire to Win and to Place, and an Exacta Box on Friesan Fire and Rachel Alexandra.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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Wizard's Crystal Ball:
#1 SEA CHANTER (Race 2) She clearly was far from being disgraced in the Grade 2 Rampart Handicap at Gulfstream Park on March 29, chasing the speedy One Caroline from start to finish. That winning frontrunner was loose on the lead from the break, and nobody else really stood a chance that day. She may have found a new career on dirt with that second-place finish, and now takes a ‘sneaky’ class drop shipping into Pimlico. SKYLIGHTER - She also finished second in her Gulfstream Park finale, closing well behind Striking Tomisue, whom she meets again today. She had very little chance that day chasing soft fractions off the layoff. She has not missed a beat in the morning since. Appears to be poised for a top effort in her second start of 2009 and completes the second half of a powerful Todd Pletcher entry.
#1 TAQARUB (Race 8) Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin might be finally done experimenting with Taqarub, as he has not won since stretched out in distance, or pitched a bit over his head. While he did face the likes of Quality Road and Theregoesjojo in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on February 28, he was out of his comfort range at a flat mile. Taqarub offered a significantly superior effort cutting back in distance and dropping in class in the Grade 3 Bayshore on April 4 at Aqueduct, finishing second that day. Still, I think that this is the spot to get him back on track. I feel that he takes a well-concealed class drop, and returns to six furlongs where he is unbeaten. In addition, he moves inside shipping to Pimlico. Also, I anticipate that jockey Alan Garcia will be “pedal to the metal” with him from the instant the gates open, as he is 3 for 3 on the front end. A recent speed-sharpening breeze at Belmont indicates “all systems go” for his initial graded stakes victory.
#8 RAVALO (Race 10) Dueled through the first six furlongs of the Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland last time out, and that is rarely what you want to be doing over the Polytrack there going 7 furlongs. Despite that, he held well to finish a close fourth, in a race he had to need, which was his first start since late January. 5yo gelding now drops a notch in class, benefits from that race under his belt, and returns to Pimlico where he is one for one lifetime. Son of Mutakddim captured the Allens Prospect last Spring here in very fast time. He is proven over this course and is also fond of wet tracks (6-2-2-1), so the conditions should suit well this afternoon. There isn't that much pace in this race, especially for a Grade 3 sprint, so Ravalo should sit a favorable, forward running trip, before taking over for good turning for home. Top speed rider John Velasquez got to know him in that Keeneland race, and is back aboard today.
#5 OUR SECOND SLEW (Race 13) He leapt into the air a slightly at the break, eventually finishing a distant second in his career debut against another firster who nobody got close to on April 8 at Laurel Park. In his second career outing, trainer Christopher Grove appears to have found a suspect field at the MSW level. He should definitely benefit from that experience. And, with an alert beginning, should exhibit much improved early speed can move forward dramatically in his second lifetime start, as evidenced by a recent bullet work on May 9. Jockey J. D. Acosta returns to complete a potent trainer/jock combo.
Wizard's Notebook: As this year’s result of the Kentucky Derby bears out, there is simply no “magic formula” for picking the winner of the “Run for the Roses”. And, for that matter, any thoroughbred race you handicap. Yet, year after year, handicappers spend hours trying to isolate the main contenders for the Derby, by speed figures, pace analysis, pedigree, connections, recency, last-out- performance, jockeys, and whatever other ‘pet handicapping aspect’ they hold dear in order to select the winner. As you well know, none of that worked in 2009. I don’t use speed figures in my handicapping, but to help explain Mind The Bird’s mind boggling improvement in the Derby, I will illustrate by using the BRIS numbers (generated by Brisnet.com). For example, looking at the first two finishers of this year’s Kentucky, Derby, The winner Mine That Bird and second place finisher Pioneerof the Nile, had never recorded a triple digit BRIS speed figure. In fact, Mine That Bird’s highest speed figure to date was 90, in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita He ran last of twelve that day. With that in mind, Mine That Bird’s electrifying performance at Churchill Downs two weeks ago obviously came out of left field. He his speed figure increased by 20 points. (Did I mention that he was winless in 2009, and could do no better than second in a stake at Sunland Park, in New Mexico?). While I take my hat off to Mine That Bird and his connections, his performance under the Twin Spires is a ‘head-scratcher’ to say the least. His victory will be remembered on two fronts, first, for its implausibility, and second, for the manner in which he accomplished his victory in an ‘Arazi-like’ manner. (Arazi won the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a similar explosive run from far off the pace). Only time will tell whether Mind That Bird’s Derby win was a complete fluke, or if the stars were in perfect alignment, as he delivered the race of a lifetime.
When handicapping the Preakness, one automatically looks at the Derby winner, and whether or not he can replicate that effort in Baltimore. Also, any horse that hit-the-board at Churchill Downs, is a good starting point as well, because it is indicative of recent good form. In addition, horses that were hindered by troubled trips in the Derby, might have been compromised by the track condition, or simply ran poorly with a substantive excuse, can be looked upon as contenders as well. There will obviously be some defections heading to Baltimore, and some new faces will emerge also. Rachel Alexandra, the Kentucky Oaks winner, and a recent private purchase, is expected to attract attention, both on track and off while coming off that blowout victory. Big Drama, who was forced to skip the Derby because of an injury he sustained this winter, should make his presence felt as well while returning to the racing wars. Sprinkle in a couple of other fresh faces, and the Preakness is yet another handicapping puzzle to solve, one in which should be scrutinized to the fullest.
As handicappers, there is no better feeling than playing a race which leads to a big score. We don’t even necessarily need to isolate the winner, but merely wager on a race in such a manner that generates a tidy profit. Don’t get me wrong, handicapping a winner has its own rewards, but our main objective is not to secure bragging rights, but to make money. That is a concept that is lost on many people who play the races. After an inconceivable result like this year’s Kentucky Derby, I tend to revisit a race to see what I might have overlooked, dissecting the past performances of the victor to come upon hints that led to his winning, and often times vastly-improved effort. Handicapping thoroughbred races is continual learning process. At times, it is an exercise in futility. It is a never-ending challenge, a task that many of us embrace on a daily basis.
THE WIZARD’S PRODUCT LINE
If you would like to purchase “The Wizard’s” Special Preakness stakes package, it is available Wednesday evening through Bloodstock Research Information Services (Bris). My selections, as well as wagering strategies, will be included. Exacta and trifecta plays will be given out. You always hope you can select the Preakness winner, but what is more important is how you wager on the race. For more information on how to become a Bris member, phone: 1 800-354-9206, and ask for customer service.
I also offer Wizard daily selections for all the major race tracks from around the country. At the present time, I am covering Arlington, Belmont, Churchill, Calder, Delaware, Philadelphia Park (Mondays and Tuesday’s only), Hollywood Park and Monmouth. ($ 6.00)
My Pick of the Day includes in depth analysis, comments & wagering strategies on the one race which the Wizard has selected as his Pick of The Day. I am winning at a huge 50 % rate since the beginning of the year, showing a flat bet profit as well as hitting many exactas and trifectas. ($6.00)
The Simulcast Best Bets sheets are The Wizard's strongest plays from tracks around the country, compiled into one easy-to-use report. Includes The Wizard's Pick of the Day FREE OF CHARGE! ($10.00)
My Pick 3 / Pick 6 and Trifecta sheet includes these “exotic wagers” as well as Pick 6 wagering strategies from major tracks around the country, all in one report. At least 9 plays in total per report, with a focus on New York and Southern California. ($10.00)
I also offer the Superfecta play of the day. Expert advice on the new 10 cent Superfecta wager. Includes in-depth analysis and wagers on the race the Wizard has deemed the best wagering opportunity from tracks in So. California, Kentucky, Chicago and more. Available Wed. - Sun. ($5.00)
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE CONFIRM BEFORE WAGERING.
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1st PIM 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $30,000. (10:15)/ 9:15/ 8:15/ 7:15
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 1 & 2)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 MALIBU JOE 2/1 Simply “whistled” in his career debut on April 8, winning off by himself by 8 1/2 widening lengths. He now takes the next logical step up the class ladder, facing preliminary Allowance runners. Has worked well in the interim and looks well-spotted to remain unbeaten with jockey Jeremy Rose.
2 STORMS PAST 5/1 Makes his first start off the Ben Feliciano Jr. claim. Finished gamely to miss by just a neck on April 9. Possesses dangerous tactical speed to enjoy a good inside trip departing from a good post. Straight is back on despite new connections.
4 WILD REPENT 7/2 Puts his three-race win streak on the line for trainer Scott Lake. Fine tactical win on April 28 at Pha. He relaxed a bit that day before vying for the lead in a gritty win effort. Gets weight off with a live 5lb. apprentice rider on.
5 SCOTCHONTHEROCKS 5/2 Completes an uncoupled entry for Lake. He is undefeated since shipping north from Gulfstream, dispensing a couple of wire-too-wire wins at Philly Park. Steps up sharp form and has the speed to lead with Castellano.
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2nd PIM 1 1/16m Grade II 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $150,000. (10:44)/ 9:44/ 8:44/ 7:44
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 2 & 3),pick 3 (races 2-3-4)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 SEA CHANTER 1/1 Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out two, and either one will do! READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
1A SKYLIGHTER 1/1 Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out two, and either one will do! READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
5 STRIKING TOMISUE 5/2 Exits the same race as Sea Chanter. She was soundly defeated that day, running a badly-beaten fourth. She was in good form prior to that abysmal effort, and should improve returning from a well-deserved freshening. Trainer Nick Zito employs jockey Garrett Gomez today.
3 TAMMY'S VICTRESS 8/1 Has been victory-less a long time, but may wake-up with the change in venue. She has run well without winning recently, but a current five furlong work hints at improvement with Saez returning.
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3rd PIM 1 1/16m (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $24,000. (11:13)/10:13/ 9:13/ 8:13
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 3 & 4),pick 3 (races 3-4-5)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 STONESTREET STAR 9/5 As the odds-on favorite, he failed to get untracked at Atlantic City on April 30 behind a pedestrian fractions. Sharp prior effort at Laurel on March 26 with Jeremy Rose up, who incidentally returns today. A more typical effort is expected for a top turf trainer in Graham Motion while returning to Maryland.
10 MYTHICAL HERO 6/1 Flew home to get second over today’s turf course on May 2, missing by less than a length off the layoff in his grass debut. The hood comes off today, and he gets more ground to work with. That coupled with a pilot switch, might be just enough to put him over the top.
2 POCKET PATCH 8/1 Finished third behind the second selection on May 2. Settled suddenly past midstretch, in a much-improved outing returning to the lawn. Draws an inside post and jockey Jonathan Joyce once again today.
7 JAZZMAN'S DANCE 10/1 Exhibited surprise speed to set the pace into the stretch and then tired slowly late on May 1 traveling around two turns. Has been sharpened for speed since. Hustling tactics are expected a second time.
Race Notes: MAIN TRACK SELECTIONS: (5) STONESTREET STAR (4) WINTER WALK (2) POCKET PATCH (3) HOT BULLET
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4th PIM 1 1/16m Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. (11:48)/10:48/ 9:48/ 8:48
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 4 & 5),pick 3 (races 4-5-6)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 EA 3/1 He certainly outran his 28-1 posttime odds with a second-place showing at Charles Town on April 18, finishing ahead of multiple graded stakes winner Commentator that day. He closed well late to secure the place spot in yet another strong effort since blinkers were added. He meets a weak field at this level and distance shipping into Pimlico. Has since come back to work twice since, and is expected to sustain his forward level of progression.
6 READY SET 5/2 Raced evenly at Delaware Park on May 6 in his 2009 debut. Finished with interest late for second money that day. Has every right to move forward off that showing. More distance should benefit him as well with a good off-the-pace rider in Leparoux.
2 REAL MERCHANT 4/1 Gained steadily in the stretch to just miss by a head at Belmont Park on May 1. Tackles a bit tougher here, but he looks well-spotted nevertheless venturing to Pimlico. Attracts Johnny V., definitely an added plus with a good post.
1 CAVE'S VALLEY 5/1 Finished fifth behind Real Merchant in New York on May 1. Fine tactical win in his prior Maryland start for a “white-hot” trainer. Hustling tactics expected reuniting with Rose and drawing the rail today.
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5th PIM 1 1/16m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $26,000. (12:28)/11:28/10:28/ 9:28
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 5 & 6),pick 4 (races 5-6-7-8)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 SCHLEPROCK 4/1 Lands in a good spot switching to Pimlico while making his second start off the Pino claim. Clearly was a tad short off nearly a two-month break at Gulfstream Park on April 10. Made a bid for the lead into a slow pace that day, and then tired as the race quickened noticeably late. Meets a suspect field at this level, and he should obviously be much “fitter” today. Has tactical speed to sit a good inside trip with jockey Edgar Prado up in a race that lacks much in the way of early pace.
7 HABITUAL 5/2 Has produced two even efforts for trainer Michael Trombetta since returning from Florida, as both contests were taken off-the-grass. He was a going away winner in his most recent grass start at Gulfstream, and should recapture that form returning to the lawn. Gets stable rider Julien Pimentel in the irons once again.
4 BEEN AWHILE 8/1 Ships up from Tampa in career form. Overcame dawdling fractions in a gritty win on April 18, his initial start facing winners. He is obviously a different horse than when he raced at Laurel in 2008, and he should be very competitive today in his Maryland return.
11 CHANCELLERY 9/2 Creditable second-place finish in his return off a long layoff on May 2. He was clearly second best chasing home a decisive winner in that race. He can move forward in his second start off-the-bench, and gets a rider switch to Jeremy Rose for good measure.
Race Notes: MAIN TRACK SELECTIONS: (2) SCHLEPROCK (7) HABITUAL (9) ROBEY’S CHOICE (1) MOTOWN SHUFFLE
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6th PIM 1 1/16m Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $35,000. ( 1:07)/12:07/11:07/10:07
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 6 & 7),pick 3 (races 6-7-8)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 NORJAC 5/2 Steps up and stretches out in career form for trainer Michael Trombetta. Fine tactical win sprinting on April 1 in fast time. He now attempts to carry his speed around two turns. Has the ability to either set or stalk the early fractions departing from a good inside post. Jockey Julien Pimentel knows him and rides him extremely well.
2 TAKE DOWN TWO 10/1 Regressed chasing too-fast a pace at Pimlico on May 1, fading badly to finish a distant fourth. Clearly he is at his best on the lead, and relishes even the slightest hint of moisture in the track. Has the speed to lead dropping seven lbs. and adding jockey Garrett Gomez today.
11 SUMACHA'HOT 2/1 Has been a gem of consistency of late for owner/trainer Hubert Cave. Closed gamely late to finish second switching to the grass on May 1. Returns to Pimlico dirt, where he finished second in a previous effort. A one-run closer, he gets plenty of pace to run at with Gibbs.
10 FURRARIAT 8/1 Simply failed to run his best race over the quirk Delaware Park main track on April 28, a race he probably needed off a five-week break. Improvement is certainly expected with a change in venue and a positive rider switch to jockey Edgar Prado.
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7th PIM 1 1/16m (Turf) Grade III 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $100,000. ( 1:55)/12:55/11:55/10:55
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 7 & 8),pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 DYNAFORCE 4/5 Returns. Was not beaten all that badly in the Breeders’ Cup Filly/Mare Turf last October at Santa Anita. Gets some much-needed class relief today as she embarks in her 2009 season for trainer Bill Mott. She has the ability to produce her “A” race when fresh, and she does not have to carry her racetrack around with her. Dynaforce has worked steadily for her comeback since March in Kentucky, and possesses the ability to set or stalk the pace. Gets a rider upgrade as well to Garrett Gomez.
2 ALL IS VANITY 9/2 Beneficial prep off-the-bench at Gulfstream Park on April 11. She made a strong and sustained bid into the stretch, but was one-paced late and finished third. She is expected to revert to frontrunning tactics today breaking from post 2 and reuniting with Alan Garcia while dropping weight.
7 SOCIAL QUEEN 15/1 Showed improvement to finish third behind slow fractions on May 2 at Belmont Park. A deep closer, she could be impacted negatively by the lack of pace signed on for this race. That said, she adores today’s 1 1/16 mile distance.
6 TEJIDA 5/1 Back on the grass, which is clearly her preferred surface. She owns multiple running styles, and fits well at this level of competition. Leparoux got to know her in her last start in Kentucky, and now returns as she switches to turf.
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8th PIM 6f Grade III 3yo, Purse: $100,000. ( 2:35)/ 1:35/12:35/11:35
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 8 & 9),pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 TAQARUB 5/2 Has the speed to lead from the rail vs. softer competition at his best distance. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
3 NOT FOR SILVER 8/1 Exits the same race as the Crystal Ball selection. He barely lifted his feet that day, finishing a non-descript fifth. His winning efforts have also come in sprints shorter than 7F. A more typical showing is expected today in Maryland. Has tactical speed to enjoy a good inside trip reuniting with Pimentel, which completes a strong trainer/jock combo.
5 JU JITSU JAX 6/1 He was also sent too far at Charles Town on April 18. He set a pestered pace at seven furlongs in that contest, tiring slowly in the final furlong to finish third. A cut back in distance should help, and he does not like to yield when placed on the lead. He is unbeaten with jockey Abel Castellano aboard.
2 EVERYDAY HEROES 6/1 Takes the acid test for class stepping up into a Grade 3 stakes contest off a freshening. Fine wire-to-wire score at Oaklawn Park on March 29 in fast time. He has won stalking the pace in the past for trainer Tim Ritchey, who excels with shippers. Jose Caraballo rides.
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9th PIM 1m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo, Purse: $50,000. ( 3:44)/ 2:44/ 1:44/12:44
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 9 & 10),pick 4 (races 9-10-11-12)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 AFFIRMATIF 3/5 Cuts back in distance after failing as the odds-on favorite at Keeneland Racecourse on April 5. He prompted the pace that day, but after seizing the lead in the stretch, he had little left to repel the winner. Tackles a rather suspect field in a stakes event shipping to Pimlico. A cut back in distance and Johnny V. returning are definite pluses.
4 BEACON HILL ROAD 6/1 Already stakes-placed, his one-paced effort on February 14 at Gulfstream is a bit puzzling, as he finished a lackluster fourth. He has been freshened since that effort and is well spotted for his return. He has run well from both on and off-the-pace in his career. Profits from a switch to Leparoux, who is at his best on grass.
1 HEROS IMAGE 12/1 Continues to improve sans blinkers. Easily handled a field of overmatched preliminary Allowance runners at Tampa on April 8, which included a next-out winner. Steps up for his return to Maryland today. Has worked twice since. Gets the rail and jockey Jose Lopez once again
Race Notes: MAIN TRACK SELECTIONS: (7) CODE OF HONOUR (5) COLONEL RUTLEDGE (9) DAKOTA DUNES (2) SURPRISE MINISTER
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10th PIM 6f Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 10 & 11),pick 3 (races 10-11-12)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 RAVALO 3/1 Appears set for a top effort off a Polytrack “prep race” at Keeneland last month. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
3 SILVER EDITION 9/2 Was one-paced over an inside speed-biased track on Derby Day at Churchill Downs. He did well to finish fourth that day, all things considered. Three of his four career win have come at today’s six furlong distance, and has finished second over today’s track previously. He reunites with jockey Julien Leparoux, who got to know him when he was overmatched at Saratoga last summer.
5 AH DAY 5/2 Has failed pitifully since his Grade 3 sprint stakes victory in the Toboggan H. on March 7 at Aqueduct while kicking-off his 2009 campaign. Something was obviously amiss in his 27+ length drubbing at Charles Town on April 18. Today, he returns to Maryland, is back in a sprint, drops weight and gets a favorable rider switch. All of which should help.
1 WEST COAST FLIER 6/1 Raced evenly against an excruciatingly hot pace in a very fast race at Delaware Park on April 25. A reformed claimer, he now ventures to Pimlico for New York based trainer Gary Contessa, and should make his presence felt attracting jockey Edgar Prado.
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11th PIM 1 1/8m (Turf) Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $150,000. ( 5:13)/ 4:13/ 3:13/ 2:13
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 11 & 12),pick 3 (races 11-12-13)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 PROUDINSKY 5/2 Failed to prolong his bid to the finish on May 2 at Churchill Downs against much tougher. He loomed a dangerous presence in along the inside in that contest, but could not keep pace late in a race he probably needed off a six-week rest. With that foundation-building effort under his belt, coupled with a drop in class, it should enable him to get back into the winner’s circle for a top turf trainer in Bobby Frankel. His last three victories have come at today’s nine furlong distance, one of them with jockey Garrett Gomez aboard, who he partners with today.
3 PARADING 9/2 Easily dispatched an overmatched field in the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland on April 19, albeit over “fake dirt”. Heartbreaking second-place finish, losing by a nose in his prior turf start at Kee. off a prolonged absence. He can be placed anywhere, and boasts a tactical edge over the field in his third start returning from the layoff. His recent 4F works indicates that he maintains his current level of sharpness.
8 STRIKE A DEAL 5/1 Returns. Easily destroyed the opposition in the Grade 2 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct to close out 2008 on a high note. He has been able to give representative performances off-the-bench in the past, but he could a tad rusty off the layoff, and ultimately may want more distance as well. Jockey John Velazquez has been named to ride.
4 KISS THE KID 5/1 Determined winner overcoming a pedestrian pace in a prolonged sprint around two turns at Gulfstream Park on March 28. He continued to improve his position as the pace accelerated, subsequently overhauling the leaders past midstretch to earn a gritty half-length win. He runs extremely well fresh despite a low % trainer.
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12th PIM 1 3/16m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,100,000. ( 6:15)/ 5:15/ 4:15/ 3:15
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 12 & 13 ) / Super High 5,2nd Half Of Black-eyed Susan / Preakness Double
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
13 RACHEL ALEXANDRA 8/5 Once in awhile, a horse runs a race in which you are mesmerized by the performance. You never forget where you were at the time. I was at Churchill Downs for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. Since I was stationed in the press box, just a stone’s throw from the paddock, I watched the Oaks on a large screen television. Rachel Alexandara was attempting to win her fifth straight race. As the overwhelming 1-5 favorite, it was just a matter of how many lengths she would win by, against six other fillies that were way overmatched. Trainer Bob Baffert, who saddled the second choice in the wagering, said a couple days before the race, “it would only be fair if Rachel Alexandra gave us a 1/16th of a mile head start, and maybe we would have chance to defeat her”. The head start would not have mattered, because she would have won anyway. Rachel’s margin of victory of 20 ¼ lengths was not what impressed me, as much as the way she did it. Prior to the race, I was in the paddock to observe all the fillies entered in the Oaks. I looked closely at each filly in their stalls, and when they were saddled, took a few spins around the walking ring. I had never seen Rachel up close and personal. If looks could kill, her six rivals should have stayed in the barn. What impressed me most about Rachel, was her physical makeup. I had never seen a three year old filly that was as long as she was from her regal head to the end of her hind quarters. Her coat glistened under the gray skies. When Jockey Calvin Borel was hoisted into the saddle, Rachel immediately arched her head towards the ground and both hers ears pricked up to the skies. Her eyes moved left and right to acknowledge the many eyes glued upon her as she made her way through the tunnel. It was game time. She was ready to step onto the field and acknowledge to the crowd of 150,000 who had traveled far and wide, that it was Rachel Alexandra who they came out to see, and she was not going disappoint them. The prior nine races on the card were just a dress rehearsal for the main event. Through the years, I have seen several fillies defeat their male counterparts in major stakes races. In the 1980 Kentucky Derby, Genuine Risk defeated the boys by one length. In 1988 Winning Colors scorched the boys in the Santa Anita Derby as a prelude to the Derby four weeks later. In a stirring finish, Winning Color defeated one of the toughest fields ever assembled for the Run for the Rose, by a neck. In her wake were Risen Star, Seeking The Gold, Forty Niner and Regal Classic, who all went on to win several prestigious Grade 1 events. In 2007, Rags To Riches upset Curlin in the Belmont Stakes. Curlin was coming off an impressive victory in the Preakness, and later went on to be horse of the year. Ruffian, who was the best filly I have ever seen in over forty years, was entered in what was called “The Great Match Race”. Ruffian would square off against Foolish Pleasure, who was considered the best male in the land. The two hooked up right out of the gate with Ruffian securing her position inside her rival. Both fought tooth and nail down the backstretch. The pace was fast and furious as the two gladiators moved down the backstretch. Ruffian put her nose in front, and it was just a matter of time, that she would kiss her rival goodbye and good riddance. In a gut wrenching blink of an eye, Ruffian broke down. The crowd was stunned and horrified, and then tears flowed throughout the cavernous Belmont Park. Rachael Alexandra is poised to add her name to the list of great fillies that defeated their male counterparts. If she runs her race, the Preakness will be added to her lofty resume. The question Rachel must answer Saturday is: can she fend off several rivals, whose jockey’s will be eyeballing her as soon as the gate opens? Rachel will have to earn the victory, as it will not be handed to her. Since she has not faced a stern battle in all four starts this year, it will be interesting to see how she will react to the heat. There are three scenarios: When the onslaught starts on the far turn, Rachel could succumb to the pressure. I don’t envision this happening. The second is she could be caught up in a hard fought battle the length of the stretch, while feeling the whip from Borel for the first time since she was a two year old. The third scenario, which is possible, is Rachel Alexandra cruising to the lead on the far turn, and drawing off to an easy victory. The three year olds that Rachel will be facing in the Preakness are ripe for a quality filly to defeat. Only Quality Road, who was victorious in the Florida Derby, showed me any brilliance. Unfortunately, he suffered from two quarter cracks, which prevented him from making the Derby. He would have been my top selection. When I look over the horses that raced in the Derby, several looked alike in ability. Mine That Bird who demolished field at 50-1, may have exposed them as just an ordinary bunch that have distance limitations. Obviously, you can say that Mine That Bird clearly relished the wet track, and his other eighteen rivals did not. All this will be answered in the Preakness, which is run at 1 3/16th mile. There is a slight chance as of this writing, that there may be some rain on Saturday. Most likely the track will be dry. If so, no horse will have any excuses unless they suffer a bad trip. With Rachel Alexandra’s superb tactical speed, and the fact that there is not much early lick in the field, especially when Hull was taken out of the race to await a stake on Belmont Stakes day. Rachel is more likely than not, to a have a good journey over a course that favors her running style. With seven wins, and two second place finishes in ten career starts, she clearly knows her way to the winners circle. Her lone defeat was in her debut going 4 ½ furlongs at Churchill. Soon after the Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra was sold for a reported ten million dollars to Jess Jackson, who also owns Curlin. She was transferred into the barn of Steve Asmussen, whom I consider one of the very best horseman in the country. However, I must tip my hat to her former trainer Hal Wiggins, who did an unbelievable job developing Rachel Alexandra. This change is unfortunate, but Jackson put up his money, and his decision to switch trainers is his prerogative. At least he has decided to keep Calvin Borel aboard the filly, who has proven to have great rapport with her. Borel is five for five on Rachel. His confidence is definitely in another stratosphere at the present time. When jockeys are in this kind of zone, horses know it. Rachel is fully aware of this. When you add up all the ingredients, it will take a big performance by her foes on Preakness day to upend a potential superstar. Her rival trainers know it, and so do all the others, who have witnessed Rachel Alexandra’s recent triumphs. What should we expect from Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness? I am aware she is the 8-5 favorite, and must win breaking from the far outside post (13). Nevertheless, I believe she could be something real special, while the others are not. Because of her draw, Rachel is expected to be loaded last. This is a plus, as the other horses inside of her, will be standing in the gate longer than her, especially the horses breaking from inside posts. Rachel Alexandra is no Big Brown at this point of her career, but when he won from post twenty in last year’s Kentucky Derby, many people said he could not overcome the draw. I felt it did not matter. Big Brown had proven he was far superior than then his opposition. Rachel Alexandra has superb tactical speed, with no horses breaking to her outside. She always breaks well from the gate, which is imperative on Saturday. If she does, Borel can watch the race develop inside of him, and take up a stalking position in third or fourth position. Rachel likes racing outside of horses. Hopefully Borel does not lose too much ground into the first turn. He does have the length of the stretch to avoid this. Rachel Alexandra, has never lost when she has the lead at the top of the stretch. Her race will be won or lost midway on the far turn, when Borel makes his move. If she can bust the race open at that point, I expect the rest of the field to be running for second money. If Rachel is unable to go by, and has to work hard to pass the front runner, this will be the moment of truth, as to whether or not she is as good as I think she is.
1 BIG DRAMA 10/1 If there wasn’t enough drama already in this year’s Preakness Stakes with Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, and the welcomed addition of the newly acquired three-year-old filly Rachael Alexandra, here comes some more on to the big stage. Big Drama, who was forced to take a pass on this year’s Kentucky Derby due to a leg injury he incurred when he kicked himself in stall this winter, requiring surgery as a result, is all set to take his place on center stage of this traveling road show called the Triple Crown. Since dropping his debut effort last July at Calder, not one horse has finished in front of him in six subsequent starts. His biggest accomplishment to date was a gritty triumph in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot last December, culminating a highly-successful juvenile campaign. With obvious Kentucky Derby aspirations, trainer David Fawkes had to postpone Big Drama’s three-year-old debut, so that the aforementioned leg wound could heal properly. Consequently, Big Drama would not make an appearance in 2009, until late in the Gulfstream Park meet, competing in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes on the Florida Derby undercard. Big Drama picked up right where he left off in 2008, (Well sort of.) Allowed to carve out a modest pace in a compact field in his comeback effort, Big Drama responded gamely when challenged by This Ones For Phil shortly after turning into the stretch. With jockey Eibar Coa aboard, he drifted out a bit, and then bumped the race favorite during a stirring stretch battle, while showing no signs of rustiness. He proved narrowly best while giving away a recency and fitness advantage to This Ones For Phil, demonstrating no ill effects of his untimely injury. However, it didn’t take long for a Steward’s Inquiry into the stretch run to be posted, and ultimately an objection by jockey Edgar Prado to be lodged against him as well. He was subsequently placed second for interference, and while he didn’t officially come away with a victory, but Big Drama was back, and in a big way. What can we expect from Big Drama in the Preakness? Drawing the rail, and getting a top speed rider in John Velazquez, I fully expect “run and gun tactics” from him. If Big Drama is to win this race, it will be on the front end,turning away all challenges for the lead, and then withstanding the off-the-pace runners in the stretch. Since his gritty effort in the Swale, Big Drama has trained magnificently at his Calder homebase for trainer David Fawkes, and he appears poised for a top effort. Should Velazquez be allowed to set a controlled pace on the lead, I have no reservations that the he can take the Preakness field gate to wire if Rachel Alexandra does not fire her best shot. In addition, I am of the opinion that 1 3/16 miles is well within his scope, as Big Drama has won twice around two turns in the past. While he has never defeated, nor competed against this caliber of competition in the past, the same could have been said about Mine That Bird prior to the Derby. And just look at what he did.
9 PIONEEROF THE NILE 5/1 Pioneerof the Nile exemplifies the word consistency. Since switched to the barn of recently inducted Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert last December, he has won four races. His lone defeat was his second place finish to Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby. Two of those victories were in Grade 1 stakes, the others in Grade 2’s. Not only is Pioneerof the Nile made of hickory, he is also extremely versatile. He can stalk, or take back, and make one run. The key to his success is if rider Garrett Gomez can get him to relax early on. In the Derby, Pioneerof the Nile never tugged on his rider. He showed good speed from the start, cruising up to the leaders as smooth as silk. As the field turned for home, it appeared certain that Pioneer would take command. Once in front, he is one tough customer to run down. Unfortunately for his connections, and those that wagered on him, no one could foresee the explosive closing run from last place by Mine That Bird. Nevertheless, not one other horse could outfinish Pioneerof the Nile for second. It could be said that Musket Man, who ran third, and fourth place finisher Papa Clem ran better, as a result of having experienced “tough trips”, while Pioneer never had a straw in his path. The bottom line is he would not let those two pass him, even though they had every chance to do so in the closing yards. That heart is what separates Pioneerof the Nile from the others. You remove The Bird from the race, and he is your winner. Prior to the Derby, Pioneer had never run on conventional dirt. All you had to go by was his two excellent workouts over the Churchill Downs course and morning gallops. In every case, he proved that the transition from synthetic surfaces to dirt would prove no deterrence as well as having to travel 1 ¼ miles. Both Baffert and owner Ahmed Zayat were confident, and so was I. Handicappers who rely on speed figures, all felt he was too slow to win. Those numbers were over synthetic surfaces which have proven not to translate well to the dirt. (The proof in the pudding is that he earned his highest career “speed figure” in the Derby, and that was over slop. What I cared most about was his consistency, will to win, and his connections.) What should we expect from Pioneerof the Nile in the Preakness? Whether or not Pioneerof the Nile catches a dry or wet surface in the Preakness, what we do know is that he will bring his “A” race, which could be good enough to win. The problem is that he will be facing two legitimate new shooters, the great filly Rachel Alexandra and Big Drama. In Rachel’s case, we know she is an exceptional filly, who is on the brink of stardom. In Big Drama, you have a fresh and fit horse that has superb tactical speed, and just like Pioneerof the Nile, he loves to win. In my gut, I just don’t feel that Pioneer can beat the filly, though he stands a good chance to defeat everyone else.
3 MUSKET MAN 8/1 If you looked up the meaning of the word consistency in the dictionary, it would not have a picture of Musket Man. But, it might as well have. Musket Man was acquired for a mere $15,000 in 2007 by his current connections, and without a doubt, Musket Man has certainly outrun his purchase price, and for that matter, his pedigree as well. Musket Man was viewed to be on the fringes of the main contenders in the Kentucky Derby, even though he annexed the Grade 2 Illinois Derby, and the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, in his two prior starts before shipping into Louisville. Despite being the son of noted sprint sire Yonaguska, he ran well to finish a commendable third at Churchill Downs. Musket Man’s race is even better than it first appears on paper. Approaching the far turn in the Derby, jockey Eibar Coa had an important decision to make. Should he stay inside with Musket Man, save ground, hoping that eventually a hole would open up. Or, just take the overland route, knowing full well he would enjoy clear sailing, but lose precious ground in the process. Coa opted for the latter. And, it cost him, at least second-place, in my opinion. On Derby Day, the inside paths were best, Just ask Calvin Borel. Musket Man lost substantial ground around the far turn, and into the stretch, as he made his bid. Remarkably, he sustained his rally past the eighth pole. But, in deep stretch, his expenditure of valuable energy finally caught up with him. Valiant in defeat, Musket Man was one-paced late. He fell just a nose short of overhauling Pioneerof the Nile for second.While he was no match for Mine That Bird, with a better trip, he surely would have finished second. What can we expect from Musket Man in the Preakness? With Musket Man, what you see is what you get. He basically handles any track, wet or dry. While I think that he would have been second at Churchill Downs with a better trip, that effort will simply not get the job done today. I prefer to use him underneath.
5 FRIESAN FIRE 6/1 Supposedly ready for another go at it in the Preakness, is the Kentucky Derby favorite Friesian Fire. I have to admit that I was more than a little bit puzzled that he was backed down to favoritism in that race. His effort in the Kentucky Derby was just as perplexing. True, he was catching a wet track, which he proved he relished in the Louisiana Derby, when he won by seven lengths. Fair Grounds slop is not the same as Churchill’s. In addition, he worked too fast days before the Derby, and pulled up after the work very tired, which did not help. When I was in the paddock for the saddling of all the horses in the Derby, I did not know what to make of Friesan Fire with his head to the back of his stall and hardly moving a muscle. I took it to mean that he was extremely relaxed, which you want to see when a three year old is running 1 ¼ miles for the first time. But, I was worried that he was too lethargic, and simply had no interest in running. Friesan Fire was reported to have grabbed his quarter, and had sustained several cuts during the running of the Derby. While I do not doubt that to be true, the mere fact that he is even being considered for the Preakness, makes me wonder if those incidents had an inpact on him that day. Friesan Fire reported home next-to-last in a truly disappointing and sub-par effort. Perhaps I was correct in my assumption, that even before being saddled, something was amiss. Many handicappers would be inclined to simply draw a line through Freisan Fire's effort at Churchill Downs. While I can certainly understand, if not agree, with that train of thought, Friesan Fire is still an unproven quantity outside of Louisiana. Despite the fact that he defeated Papa Clem quite handily in the Louisiana Derby, that race was in March. Friesan Fire held a “homecourt advantage” in that contest, having been stabled at the Fair Grounds since November. He had also won two races over that track, both in stakes races. I suppose that his brilliant workouts leading up to the Derby, and the expertise of his trainer, Larry Jones, were reason enough to bring about a sentimental wager or two. However, I am still not convinced that he is capable of winning the Preakness. That’s not to say that he can’t, but he will need to rebound in a big way. What can we expect from Friesan Fire in the Preakness? Since his Derby debacle, Friesan Fire has come back to literally “scorch” the Pimlico track, working an ‘eye-catching’ five furlongs in a lively in 58 2/5 on May 12, enabling trainer Larry Jones to pronounce him good-to-go. Problem is, good-to-go where. Bet down to 7/2 odds in the 20-horse Derby field, he barely ran six furlongs before calling it a day. Now, back on two weeks rest, he’s ready to saddle-up again, hopefully with a more typical effort. What to do, what to do. One thing that can be said, Friesan Fire has never had the chance to reproduce his Louisiana Derby effort. While that race seems like it happened a lifetime ago, that effort, coupled with some sparkling works, propelled him to favoritism at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Any semblance of that effort legitimizes him as a bonafide contender. But whether he can regroup within a short period of time remains to be seen. A win by him would not be shocking, but I do prefer others. And, as we all know, once the gates open, it is anybody’s race.
2 MINE THAT BIRD 6/1 “Freaked”. That is the word that I have heard and seen most often in print, to somehow depict Mine That Bird’s electrifying performance in this year’s Derby. Whether or not you agree with that assessment of his effort in the Run for the Roses or not, one incontrovertible fact remains. Mine That Bird is the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, regardless of how improbable his victory was. Rather than try to rationalize or explain away his unbelievable performance that day, I prefer to just turn the page and direct my attention to today’s race. Because, no matter how hard you might try, no one can reasonably say, with any accuracy, why Mine That Bird blew away the field, closing from dead last, to win by 6 ¾ widening lengths. Can “lightning in a bottle” strike a second time in the Preakness, or for that matter, ever again? Mine That Bird entered the Kentucky Derby starting gate in deserved obscurity, and deservedly so. Yet, when all was said and done, his name was on the lips of thoroughbred handicappers and fans throughout the world. Taken farther off-the-pace than ever before, Mine That Bird could see the entire Kentucky Derby field under new rider Calvin Borel. Seemingly in no particular hurry, Borel was content with his position early on until finally asking Mine That Bird to pick up the pace at the midway point down the backstretch. Wow, did he ever! Mine That Bird fashioned an “Arazi like” burst of late speed, which saw him rapidly make up ground with every stride. He continued to reduce his deficit along the inside, which coincidentally was the best part of the track all afternoon. Mine That Bird, now in full stride, began picking off runners one by one around the far turn. It would only be a matter of time before he would stand the racing world on its ear. After a deft move by Borel to maneuver past a tiring runner, Mine That Bird was then guided back to the rail as he continued his sustained rally. Mine That Bird subsequently squeezed thru a narrow opening along the rail nearing midstretch, to draw alongside Pioneerof the Nile. Eventually, he wrestled the lead away from him, drawing clear with giant strides enroute to a startling victory. The rest, as they say, is history, no matter how incredible it may be. What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Preakness? In all honesty, I really can’t say. His fortunes could be basically tied to the amount of water present in the Pimlico racetrack. With showers in the forecast, a wet track only enhances his chances on Saturday. In the Kentucky Derby, he sprouted water wings and splashed his way home to an upset victory. His form over a dry track leaves something to be desired, and his race in the Preakness will go long way in determining whether his Run for the Roses was an aberration, or he simply benefited from a moisture-laden surface. Then again, maybe both. Even though Calvin Borel has deserted him, he has a capable replacement rider in Mike Smith. One thing I am certain about Mine That Bird in the Preakness, I like him a lot less over a dry surface, no matter who is in the saddle.
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13th PIM 6f MdnSpWt 3yo, Purse: $28,000. ( 7:15)/ 6:15/ 5:15/ 4:15
Exacta, Trifecta & Super High 5
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 OUR SECOND SLEW 5/2 Well spotted to register his initial career victory for a good second out barn. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
6 PILANESBERG 2/1 Returns to the main track, which he seems to prefer. Immediately was sent to the lead on April 30 on grass, but gave way readily once displaced on the front end. Sharp 2nd at Penn National over the main track on April 30, showing the way until deep stretch. They have him to catch reuniting with K. Carmouche.
7 SPECIALALTERNATIVE 9/2 Ran “sneaky well” late in his well-bet career debut. Made up significant ground late and now he gets off-the-rail today. Adds blinkers for his second start, a deadly move for trainer Graham Motion. He will also get a change in rider to Jeremy Rose.
8 WHITEHOUSE RIDGE 8/1 Makes his first start. A homebred runner. He is bred to win early in his career. Trainer Hamilton Smith is extremely skilled with debut runners. Sports a steady workout out regimen of late for his unveiling. Gets Lasix. Lures Desormeaux.
#1 SEA CHANTER (Race 2) She clearly was far from being disgraced in the Grade 2 Rampart Handicap at Gulfstream Park on March 29, chasing the speedy One Caroline from start to finish. That winning frontrunner was loose on the lead from the break, and nobody else really stood a chance that day. She may have found a new career on dirt with that second-place finish, and now takes a ‘sneaky’ class drop shipping into Pimlico. SKYLIGHTER - She also finished second in her Gulfstream Park finale, closing well behind Striking Tomisue, whom she meets again today. She had very little chance that day chasing soft fractions off the layoff. She has not missed a beat in the morning since. Appears to be poised for a top effort in her second start of 2009 and completes the second half of a powerful Todd Pletcher entry.
#1 TAQARUB (Race 8) Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin might be finally done experimenting with Taqarub, as he has not won since stretched out in distance, or pitched a bit over his head. While he did face the likes of Quality Road and Theregoesjojo in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on February 28, he was out of his comfort range at a flat mile. Taqarub offered a significantly superior effort cutting back in distance and dropping in class in the Grade 3 Bayshore on April 4 at Aqueduct, finishing second that day. Still, I think that this is the spot to get him back on track. I feel that he takes a well-concealed class drop, and returns to six furlongs where he is unbeaten. In addition, he moves inside shipping to Pimlico. Also, I anticipate that jockey Alan Garcia will be “pedal to the metal” with him from the instant the gates open, as he is 3 for 3 on the front end. A recent speed-sharpening breeze at Belmont indicates “all systems go” for his initial graded stakes victory.
#8 RAVALO (Race 10) Dueled through the first six furlongs of the Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland last time out, and that is rarely what you want to be doing over the Polytrack there going 7 furlongs. Despite that, he held well to finish a close fourth, in a race he had to need, which was his first start since late January. 5yo gelding now drops a notch in class, benefits from that race under his belt, and returns to Pimlico where he is one for one lifetime. Son of Mutakddim captured the Allens Prospect last Spring here in very fast time. He is proven over this course and is also fond of wet tracks (6-2-2-1), so the conditions should suit well this afternoon. There isn't that much pace in this race, especially for a Grade 3 sprint, so Ravalo should sit a favorable, forward running trip, before taking over for good turning for home. Top speed rider John Velasquez got to know him in that Keeneland race, and is back aboard today.
#5 OUR SECOND SLEW (Race 13) He leapt into the air a slightly at the break, eventually finishing a distant second in his career debut against another firster who nobody got close to on April 8 at Laurel Park. In his second career outing, trainer Christopher Grove appears to have found a suspect field at the MSW level. He should definitely benefit from that experience. And, with an alert beginning, should exhibit much improved early speed can move forward dramatically in his second lifetime start, as evidenced by a recent bullet work on May 9. Jockey J. D. Acosta returns to complete a potent trainer/jock combo.
Wizard's Notebook: As this year’s result of the Kentucky Derby bears out, there is simply no “magic formula” for picking the winner of the “Run for the Roses”. And, for that matter, any thoroughbred race you handicap. Yet, year after year, handicappers spend hours trying to isolate the main contenders for the Derby, by speed figures, pace analysis, pedigree, connections, recency, last-out- performance, jockeys, and whatever other ‘pet handicapping aspect’ they hold dear in order to select the winner. As you well know, none of that worked in 2009. I don’t use speed figures in my handicapping, but to help explain Mind The Bird’s mind boggling improvement in the Derby, I will illustrate by using the BRIS numbers (generated by Brisnet.com). For example, looking at the first two finishers of this year’s Kentucky, Derby, The winner Mine That Bird and second place finisher Pioneerof the Nile, had never recorded a triple digit BRIS speed figure. In fact, Mine That Bird’s highest speed figure to date was 90, in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita He ran last of twelve that day. With that in mind, Mine That Bird’s electrifying performance at Churchill Downs two weeks ago obviously came out of left field. He his speed figure increased by 20 points. (Did I mention that he was winless in 2009, and could do no better than second in a stake at Sunland Park, in New Mexico?). While I take my hat off to Mine That Bird and his connections, his performance under the Twin Spires is a ‘head-scratcher’ to say the least. His victory will be remembered on two fronts, first, for its implausibility, and second, for the manner in which he accomplished his victory in an ‘Arazi-like’ manner. (Arazi won the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a similar explosive run from far off the pace). Only time will tell whether Mind That Bird’s Derby win was a complete fluke, or if the stars were in perfect alignment, as he delivered the race of a lifetime.
When handicapping the Preakness, one automatically looks at the Derby winner, and whether or not he can replicate that effort in Baltimore. Also, any horse that hit-the-board at Churchill Downs, is a good starting point as well, because it is indicative of recent good form. In addition, horses that were hindered by troubled trips in the Derby, might have been compromised by the track condition, or simply ran poorly with a substantive excuse, can be looked upon as contenders as well. There will obviously be some defections heading to Baltimore, and some new faces will emerge also. Rachel Alexandra, the Kentucky Oaks winner, and a recent private purchase, is expected to attract attention, both on track and off while coming off that blowout victory. Big Drama, who was forced to skip the Derby because of an injury he sustained this winter, should make his presence felt as well while returning to the racing wars. Sprinkle in a couple of other fresh faces, and the Preakness is yet another handicapping puzzle to solve, one in which should be scrutinized to the fullest.
As handicappers, there is no better feeling than playing a race which leads to a big score. We don’t even necessarily need to isolate the winner, but merely wager on a race in such a manner that generates a tidy profit. Don’t get me wrong, handicapping a winner has its own rewards, but our main objective is not to secure bragging rights, but to make money. That is a concept that is lost on many people who play the races. After an inconceivable result like this year’s Kentucky Derby, I tend to revisit a race to see what I might have overlooked, dissecting the past performances of the victor to come upon hints that led to his winning, and often times vastly-improved effort. Handicapping thoroughbred races is continual learning process. At times, it is an exercise in futility. It is a never-ending challenge, a task that many of us embrace on a daily basis.
THE WIZARD’S PRODUCT LINE
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1st PIM 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $30,000. (10:15)/ 9:15/ 8:15/ 7:15
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 1 & 2)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 MALIBU JOE 2/1 Simply “whistled” in his career debut on April 8, winning off by himself by 8 1/2 widening lengths. He now takes the next logical step up the class ladder, facing preliminary Allowance runners. Has worked well in the interim and looks well-spotted to remain unbeaten with jockey Jeremy Rose.
2 STORMS PAST 5/1 Makes his first start off the Ben Feliciano Jr. claim. Finished gamely to miss by just a neck on April 9. Possesses dangerous tactical speed to enjoy a good inside trip departing from a good post. Straight is back on despite new connections.
4 WILD REPENT 7/2 Puts his three-race win streak on the line for trainer Scott Lake. Fine tactical win on April 28 at Pha. He relaxed a bit that day before vying for the lead in a gritty win effort. Gets weight off with a live 5lb. apprentice rider on.
5 SCOTCHONTHEROCKS 5/2 Completes an uncoupled entry for Lake. He is undefeated since shipping north from Gulfstream, dispensing a couple of wire-too-wire wins at Philly Park. Steps up sharp form and has the speed to lead with Castellano.
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2nd PIM 1 1/16m Grade II 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $150,000. (10:44)/ 9:44/ 8:44/ 7:44
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 2 & 3),pick 3 (races 2-3-4)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 SEA CHANTER 1/1 Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out two, and either one will do! READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
1A SKYLIGHTER 1/1 Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out two, and either one will do! READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
5 STRIKING TOMISUE 5/2 Exits the same race as Sea Chanter. She was soundly defeated that day, running a badly-beaten fourth. She was in good form prior to that abysmal effort, and should improve returning from a well-deserved freshening. Trainer Nick Zito employs jockey Garrett Gomez today.
3 TAMMY'S VICTRESS 8/1 Has been victory-less a long time, but may wake-up with the change in venue. She has run well without winning recently, but a current five furlong work hints at improvement with Saez returning.
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3rd PIM 1 1/16m (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $24,000. (11:13)/10:13/ 9:13/ 8:13
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 3 & 4),pick 3 (races 3-4-5)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 STONESTREET STAR 9/5 As the odds-on favorite, he failed to get untracked at Atlantic City on April 30 behind a pedestrian fractions. Sharp prior effort at Laurel on March 26 with Jeremy Rose up, who incidentally returns today. A more typical effort is expected for a top turf trainer in Graham Motion while returning to Maryland.
10 MYTHICAL HERO 6/1 Flew home to get second over today’s turf course on May 2, missing by less than a length off the layoff in his grass debut. The hood comes off today, and he gets more ground to work with. That coupled with a pilot switch, might be just enough to put him over the top.
2 POCKET PATCH 8/1 Finished third behind the second selection on May 2. Settled suddenly past midstretch, in a much-improved outing returning to the lawn. Draws an inside post and jockey Jonathan Joyce once again today.
7 JAZZMAN'S DANCE 10/1 Exhibited surprise speed to set the pace into the stretch and then tired slowly late on May 1 traveling around two turns. Has been sharpened for speed since. Hustling tactics are expected a second time.
Race Notes: MAIN TRACK SELECTIONS: (5) STONESTREET STAR (4) WINTER WALK (2) POCKET PATCH (3) HOT BULLET
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4th PIM 1 1/16m Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. (11:48)/10:48/ 9:48/ 8:48
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 4 & 5),pick 3 (races 4-5-6)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 EA 3/1 He certainly outran his 28-1 posttime odds with a second-place showing at Charles Town on April 18, finishing ahead of multiple graded stakes winner Commentator that day. He closed well late to secure the place spot in yet another strong effort since blinkers were added. He meets a weak field at this level and distance shipping into Pimlico. Has since come back to work twice since, and is expected to sustain his forward level of progression.
6 READY SET 5/2 Raced evenly at Delaware Park on May 6 in his 2009 debut. Finished with interest late for second money that day. Has every right to move forward off that showing. More distance should benefit him as well with a good off-the-pace rider in Leparoux.
2 REAL MERCHANT 4/1 Gained steadily in the stretch to just miss by a head at Belmont Park on May 1. Tackles a bit tougher here, but he looks well-spotted nevertheless venturing to Pimlico. Attracts Johnny V., definitely an added plus with a good post.
1 CAVE'S VALLEY 5/1 Finished fifth behind Real Merchant in New York on May 1. Fine tactical win in his prior Maryland start for a “white-hot” trainer. Hustling tactics expected reuniting with Rose and drawing the rail today.
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5th PIM 1 1/16m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $26,000. (12:28)/11:28/10:28/ 9:28
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 5 & 6),pick 4 (races 5-6-7-8)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 SCHLEPROCK 4/1 Lands in a good spot switching to Pimlico while making his second start off the Pino claim. Clearly was a tad short off nearly a two-month break at Gulfstream Park on April 10. Made a bid for the lead into a slow pace that day, and then tired as the race quickened noticeably late. Meets a suspect field at this level, and he should obviously be much “fitter” today. Has tactical speed to sit a good inside trip with jockey Edgar Prado up in a race that lacks much in the way of early pace.
7 HABITUAL 5/2 Has produced two even efforts for trainer Michael Trombetta since returning from Florida, as both contests were taken off-the-grass. He was a going away winner in his most recent grass start at Gulfstream, and should recapture that form returning to the lawn. Gets stable rider Julien Pimentel in the irons once again.
4 BEEN AWHILE 8/1 Ships up from Tampa in career form. Overcame dawdling fractions in a gritty win on April 18, his initial start facing winners. He is obviously a different horse than when he raced at Laurel in 2008, and he should be very competitive today in his Maryland return.
11 CHANCELLERY 9/2 Creditable second-place finish in his return off a long layoff on May 2. He was clearly second best chasing home a decisive winner in that race. He can move forward in his second start off-the-bench, and gets a rider switch to Jeremy Rose for good measure.
Race Notes: MAIN TRACK SELECTIONS: (2) SCHLEPROCK (7) HABITUAL (9) ROBEY’S CHOICE (1) MOTOWN SHUFFLE
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6th PIM 1 1/16m Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $35,000. ( 1:07)/12:07/11:07/10:07
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 6 & 7),pick 3 (races 6-7-8)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 NORJAC 5/2 Steps up and stretches out in career form for trainer Michael Trombetta. Fine tactical win sprinting on April 1 in fast time. He now attempts to carry his speed around two turns. Has the ability to either set or stalk the early fractions departing from a good inside post. Jockey Julien Pimentel knows him and rides him extremely well.
2 TAKE DOWN TWO 10/1 Regressed chasing too-fast a pace at Pimlico on May 1, fading badly to finish a distant fourth. Clearly he is at his best on the lead, and relishes even the slightest hint of moisture in the track. Has the speed to lead dropping seven lbs. and adding jockey Garrett Gomez today.
11 SUMACHA'HOT 2/1 Has been a gem of consistency of late for owner/trainer Hubert Cave. Closed gamely late to finish second switching to the grass on May 1. Returns to Pimlico dirt, where he finished second in a previous effort. A one-run closer, he gets plenty of pace to run at with Gibbs.
10 FURRARIAT 8/1 Simply failed to run his best race over the quirk Delaware Park main track on April 28, a race he probably needed off a five-week break. Improvement is certainly expected with a change in venue and a positive rider switch to jockey Edgar Prado.
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7th PIM 1 1/16m (Turf) Grade III 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $100,000. ( 1:55)/12:55/11:55/10:55
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 7 & 8),pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 DYNAFORCE 4/5 Returns. Was not beaten all that badly in the Breeders’ Cup Filly/Mare Turf last October at Santa Anita. Gets some much-needed class relief today as she embarks in her 2009 season for trainer Bill Mott. She has the ability to produce her “A” race when fresh, and she does not have to carry her racetrack around with her. Dynaforce has worked steadily for her comeback since March in Kentucky, and possesses the ability to set or stalk the pace. Gets a rider upgrade as well to Garrett Gomez.
2 ALL IS VANITY 9/2 Beneficial prep off-the-bench at Gulfstream Park on April 11. She made a strong and sustained bid into the stretch, but was one-paced late and finished third. She is expected to revert to frontrunning tactics today breaking from post 2 and reuniting with Alan Garcia while dropping weight.
7 SOCIAL QUEEN 15/1 Showed improvement to finish third behind slow fractions on May 2 at Belmont Park. A deep closer, she could be impacted negatively by the lack of pace signed on for this race. That said, she adores today’s 1 1/16 mile distance.
6 TEJIDA 5/1 Back on the grass, which is clearly her preferred surface. She owns multiple running styles, and fits well at this level of competition. Leparoux got to know her in her last start in Kentucky, and now returns as she switches to turf.
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8th PIM 6f Grade III 3yo, Purse: $100,000. ( 2:35)/ 1:35/12:35/11:35
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 8 & 9),pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 TAQARUB 5/2 Has the speed to lead from the rail vs. softer competition at his best distance. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
3 NOT FOR SILVER 8/1 Exits the same race as the Crystal Ball selection. He barely lifted his feet that day, finishing a non-descript fifth. His winning efforts have also come in sprints shorter than 7F. A more typical showing is expected today in Maryland. Has tactical speed to enjoy a good inside trip reuniting with Pimentel, which completes a strong trainer/jock combo.
5 JU JITSU JAX 6/1 He was also sent too far at Charles Town on April 18. He set a pestered pace at seven furlongs in that contest, tiring slowly in the final furlong to finish third. A cut back in distance should help, and he does not like to yield when placed on the lead. He is unbeaten with jockey Abel Castellano aboard.
2 EVERYDAY HEROES 6/1 Takes the acid test for class stepping up into a Grade 3 stakes contest off a freshening. Fine wire-to-wire score at Oaklawn Park on March 29 in fast time. He has won stalking the pace in the past for trainer Tim Ritchey, who excels with shippers. Jose Caraballo rides.
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9th PIM 1m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo, Purse: $50,000. ( 3:44)/ 2:44/ 1:44/12:44
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 9 & 10),pick 4 (races 9-10-11-12)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 AFFIRMATIF 3/5 Cuts back in distance after failing as the odds-on favorite at Keeneland Racecourse on April 5. He prompted the pace that day, but after seizing the lead in the stretch, he had little left to repel the winner. Tackles a rather suspect field in a stakes event shipping to Pimlico. A cut back in distance and Johnny V. returning are definite pluses.
4 BEACON HILL ROAD 6/1 Already stakes-placed, his one-paced effort on February 14 at Gulfstream is a bit puzzling, as he finished a lackluster fourth. He has been freshened since that effort and is well spotted for his return. He has run well from both on and off-the-pace in his career. Profits from a switch to Leparoux, who is at his best on grass.
1 HEROS IMAGE 12/1 Continues to improve sans blinkers. Easily handled a field of overmatched preliminary Allowance runners at Tampa on April 8, which included a next-out winner. Steps up for his return to Maryland today. Has worked twice since. Gets the rail and jockey Jose Lopez once again
Race Notes: MAIN TRACK SELECTIONS: (7) CODE OF HONOUR (5) COLONEL RUTLEDGE (9) DAKOTA DUNES (2) SURPRISE MINISTER
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10th PIM 6f Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 10 & 11),pick 3 (races 10-11-12)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 RAVALO 3/1 Appears set for a top effort off a Polytrack “prep race” at Keeneland last month. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
3 SILVER EDITION 9/2 Was one-paced over an inside speed-biased track on Derby Day at Churchill Downs. He did well to finish fourth that day, all things considered. Three of his four career win have come at today’s six furlong distance, and has finished second over today’s track previously. He reunites with jockey Julien Leparoux, who got to know him when he was overmatched at Saratoga last summer.
5 AH DAY 5/2 Has failed pitifully since his Grade 3 sprint stakes victory in the Toboggan H. on March 7 at Aqueduct while kicking-off his 2009 campaign. Something was obviously amiss in his 27+ length drubbing at Charles Town on April 18. Today, he returns to Maryland, is back in a sprint, drops weight and gets a favorable rider switch. All of which should help.
1 WEST COAST FLIER 6/1 Raced evenly against an excruciatingly hot pace in a very fast race at Delaware Park on April 25. A reformed claimer, he now ventures to Pimlico for New York based trainer Gary Contessa, and should make his presence felt attracting jockey Edgar Prado.
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11th PIM 1 1/8m (Turf) Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $150,000. ( 5:13)/ 4:13/ 3:13/ 2:13
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 11 & 12),pick 3 (races 11-12-13)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 PROUDINSKY 5/2 Failed to prolong his bid to the finish on May 2 at Churchill Downs against much tougher. He loomed a dangerous presence in along the inside in that contest, but could not keep pace late in a race he probably needed off a six-week rest. With that foundation-building effort under his belt, coupled with a drop in class, it should enable him to get back into the winner’s circle for a top turf trainer in Bobby Frankel. His last three victories have come at today’s nine furlong distance, one of them with jockey Garrett Gomez aboard, who he partners with today.
3 PARADING 9/2 Easily dispatched an overmatched field in the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland on April 19, albeit over “fake dirt”. Heartbreaking second-place finish, losing by a nose in his prior turf start at Kee. off a prolonged absence. He can be placed anywhere, and boasts a tactical edge over the field in his third start returning from the layoff. His recent 4F works indicates that he maintains his current level of sharpness.
8 STRIKE A DEAL 5/1 Returns. Easily destroyed the opposition in the Grade 2 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct to close out 2008 on a high note. He has been able to give representative performances off-the-bench in the past, but he could a tad rusty off the layoff, and ultimately may want more distance as well. Jockey John Velazquez has been named to ride.
4 KISS THE KID 5/1 Determined winner overcoming a pedestrian pace in a prolonged sprint around two turns at Gulfstream Park on March 28. He continued to improve his position as the pace accelerated, subsequently overhauling the leaders past midstretch to earn a gritty half-length win. He runs extremely well fresh despite a low % trainer.
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12th PIM 1 3/16m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,100,000. ( 6:15)/ 5:15/ 4:15/ 3:15
Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta / Daily Double (races 12 & 13 ) / Super High 5,2nd Half Of Black-eyed Susan / Preakness Double
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
13 RACHEL ALEXANDRA 8/5 Once in awhile, a horse runs a race in which you are mesmerized by the performance. You never forget where you were at the time. I was at Churchill Downs for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. Since I was stationed in the press box, just a stone’s throw from the paddock, I watched the Oaks on a large screen television. Rachel Alexandara was attempting to win her fifth straight race. As the overwhelming 1-5 favorite, it was just a matter of how many lengths she would win by, against six other fillies that were way overmatched. Trainer Bob Baffert, who saddled the second choice in the wagering, said a couple days before the race, “it would only be fair if Rachel Alexandra gave us a 1/16th of a mile head start, and maybe we would have chance to defeat her”. The head start would not have mattered, because she would have won anyway. Rachel’s margin of victory of 20 ¼ lengths was not what impressed me, as much as the way she did it. Prior to the race, I was in the paddock to observe all the fillies entered in the Oaks. I looked closely at each filly in their stalls, and when they were saddled, took a few spins around the walking ring. I had never seen Rachel up close and personal. If looks could kill, her six rivals should have stayed in the barn. What impressed me most about Rachel, was her physical makeup. I had never seen a three year old filly that was as long as she was from her regal head to the end of her hind quarters. Her coat glistened under the gray skies. When Jockey Calvin Borel was hoisted into the saddle, Rachel immediately arched her head towards the ground and both hers ears pricked up to the skies. Her eyes moved left and right to acknowledge the many eyes glued upon her as she made her way through the tunnel. It was game time. She was ready to step onto the field and acknowledge to the crowd of 150,000 who had traveled far and wide, that it was Rachel Alexandra who they came out to see, and she was not going disappoint them. The prior nine races on the card were just a dress rehearsal for the main event. Through the years, I have seen several fillies defeat their male counterparts in major stakes races. In the 1980 Kentucky Derby, Genuine Risk defeated the boys by one length. In 1988 Winning Colors scorched the boys in the Santa Anita Derby as a prelude to the Derby four weeks later. In a stirring finish, Winning Color defeated one of the toughest fields ever assembled for the Run for the Rose, by a neck. In her wake were Risen Star, Seeking The Gold, Forty Niner and Regal Classic, who all went on to win several prestigious Grade 1 events. In 2007, Rags To Riches upset Curlin in the Belmont Stakes. Curlin was coming off an impressive victory in the Preakness, and later went on to be horse of the year. Ruffian, who was the best filly I have ever seen in over forty years, was entered in what was called “The Great Match Race”. Ruffian would square off against Foolish Pleasure, who was considered the best male in the land. The two hooked up right out of the gate with Ruffian securing her position inside her rival. Both fought tooth and nail down the backstretch. The pace was fast and furious as the two gladiators moved down the backstretch. Ruffian put her nose in front, and it was just a matter of time, that she would kiss her rival goodbye and good riddance. In a gut wrenching blink of an eye, Ruffian broke down. The crowd was stunned and horrified, and then tears flowed throughout the cavernous Belmont Park. Rachael Alexandra is poised to add her name to the list of great fillies that defeated their male counterparts. If she runs her race, the Preakness will be added to her lofty resume. The question Rachel must answer Saturday is: can she fend off several rivals, whose jockey’s will be eyeballing her as soon as the gate opens? Rachel will have to earn the victory, as it will not be handed to her. Since she has not faced a stern battle in all four starts this year, it will be interesting to see how she will react to the heat. There are three scenarios: When the onslaught starts on the far turn, Rachel could succumb to the pressure. I don’t envision this happening. The second is she could be caught up in a hard fought battle the length of the stretch, while feeling the whip from Borel for the first time since she was a two year old. The third scenario, which is possible, is Rachel Alexandra cruising to the lead on the far turn, and drawing off to an easy victory. The three year olds that Rachel will be facing in the Preakness are ripe for a quality filly to defeat. Only Quality Road, who was victorious in the Florida Derby, showed me any brilliance. Unfortunately, he suffered from two quarter cracks, which prevented him from making the Derby. He would have been my top selection. When I look over the horses that raced in the Derby, several looked alike in ability. Mine That Bird who demolished field at 50-1, may have exposed them as just an ordinary bunch that have distance limitations. Obviously, you can say that Mine That Bird clearly relished the wet track, and his other eighteen rivals did not. All this will be answered in the Preakness, which is run at 1 3/16th mile. There is a slight chance as of this writing, that there may be some rain on Saturday. Most likely the track will be dry. If so, no horse will have any excuses unless they suffer a bad trip. With Rachel Alexandra’s superb tactical speed, and the fact that there is not much early lick in the field, especially when Hull was taken out of the race to await a stake on Belmont Stakes day. Rachel is more likely than not, to a have a good journey over a course that favors her running style. With seven wins, and two second place finishes in ten career starts, she clearly knows her way to the winners circle. Her lone defeat was in her debut going 4 ½ furlongs at Churchill. Soon after the Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra was sold for a reported ten million dollars to Jess Jackson, who also owns Curlin. She was transferred into the barn of Steve Asmussen, whom I consider one of the very best horseman in the country. However, I must tip my hat to her former trainer Hal Wiggins, who did an unbelievable job developing Rachel Alexandra. This change is unfortunate, but Jackson put up his money, and his decision to switch trainers is his prerogative. At least he has decided to keep Calvin Borel aboard the filly, who has proven to have great rapport with her. Borel is five for five on Rachel. His confidence is definitely in another stratosphere at the present time. When jockeys are in this kind of zone, horses know it. Rachel is fully aware of this. When you add up all the ingredients, it will take a big performance by her foes on Preakness day to upend a potential superstar. Her rival trainers know it, and so do all the others, who have witnessed Rachel Alexandra’s recent triumphs. What should we expect from Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness? I am aware she is the 8-5 favorite, and must win breaking from the far outside post (13). Nevertheless, I believe she could be something real special, while the others are not. Because of her draw, Rachel is expected to be loaded last. This is a plus, as the other horses inside of her, will be standing in the gate longer than her, especially the horses breaking from inside posts. Rachel Alexandra is no Big Brown at this point of her career, but when he won from post twenty in last year’s Kentucky Derby, many people said he could not overcome the draw. I felt it did not matter. Big Brown had proven he was far superior than then his opposition. Rachel Alexandra has superb tactical speed, with no horses breaking to her outside. She always breaks well from the gate, which is imperative on Saturday. If she does, Borel can watch the race develop inside of him, and take up a stalking position in third or fourth position. Rachel likes racing outside of horses. Hopefully Borel does not lose too much ground into the first turn. He does have the length of the stretch to avoid this. Rachel Alexandra, has never lost when she has the lead at the top of the stretch. Her race will be won or lost midway on the far turn, when Borel makes his move. If she can bust the race open at that point, I expect the rest of the field to be running for second money. If Rachel is unable to go by, and has to work hard to pass the front runner, this will be the moment of truth, as to whether or not she is as good as I think she is.
1 BIG DRAMA 10/1 If there wasn’t enough drama already in this year’s Preakness Stakes with Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, and the welcomed addition of the newly acquired three-year-old filly Rachael Alexandra, here comes some more on to the big stage. Big Drama, who was forced to take a pass on this year’s Kentucky Derby due to a leg injury he incurred when he kicked himself in stall this winter, requiring surgery as a result, is all set to take his place on center stage of this traveling road show called the Triple Crown. Since dropping his debut effort last July at Calder, not one horse has finished in front of him in six subsequent starts. His biggest accomplishment to date was a gritty triumph in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot last December, culminating a highly-successful juvenile campaign. With obvious Kentucky Derby aspirations, trainer David Fawkes had to postpone Big Drama’s three-year-old debut, so that the aforementioned leg wound could heal properly. Consequently, Big Drama would not make an appearance in 2009, until late in the Gulfstream Park meet, competing in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes on the Florida Derby undercard. Big Drama picked up right where he left off in 2008, (Well sort of.) Allowed to carve out a modest pace in a compact field in his comeback effort, Big Drama responded gamely when challenged by This Ones For Phil shortly after turning into the stretch. With jockey Eibar Coa aboard, he drifted out a bit, and then bumped the race favorite during a stirring stretch battle, while showing no signs of rustiness. He proved narrowly best while giving away a recency and fitness advantage to This Ones For Phil, demonstrating no ill effects of his untimely injury. However, it didn’t take long for a Steward’s Inquiry into the stretch run to be posted, and ultimately an objection by jockey Edgar Prado to be lodged against him as well. He was subsequently placed second for interference, and while he didn’t officially come away with a victory, but Big Drama was back, and in a big way. What can we expect from Big Drama in the Preakness? Drawing the rail, and getting a top speed rider in John Velazquez, I fully expect “run and gun tactics” from him. If Big Drama is to win this race, it will be on the front end,turning away all challenges for the lead, and then withstanding the off-the-pace runners in the stretch. Since his gritty effort in the Swale, Big Drama has trained magnificently at his Calder homebase for trainer David Fawkes, and he appears poised for a top effort. Should Velazquez be allowed to set a controlled pace on the lead, I have no reservations that the he can take the Preakness field gate to wire if Rachel Alexandra does not fire her best shot. In addition, I am of the opinion that 1 3/16 miles is well within his scope, as Big Drama has won twice around two turns in the past. While he has never defeated, nor competed against this caliber of competition in the past, the same could have been said about Mine That Bird prior to the Derby. And just look at what he did.
9 PIONEEROF THE NILE 5/1 Pioneerof the Nile exemplifies the word consistency. Since switched to the barn of recently inducted Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert last December, he has won four races. His lone defeat was his second place finish to Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby. Two of those victories were in Grade 1 stakes, the others in Grade 2’s. Not only is Pioneerof the Nile made of hickory, he is also extremely versatile. He can stalk, or take back, and make one run. The key to his success is if rider Garrett Gomez can get him to relax early on. In the Derby, Pioneerof the Nile never tugged on his rider. He showed good speed from the start, cruising up to the leaders as smooth as silk. As the field turned for home, it appeared certain that Pioneer would take command. Once in front, he is one tough customer to run down. Unfortunately for his connections, and those that wagered on him, no one could foresee the explosive closing run from last place by Mine That Bird. Nevertheless, not one other horse could outfinish Pioneerof the Nile for second. It could be said that Musket Man, who ran third, and fourth place finisher Papa Clem ran better, as a result of having experienced “tough trips”, while Pioneer never had a straw in his path. The bottom line is he would not let those two pass him, even though they had every chance to do so in the closing yards. That heart is what separates Pioneerof the Nile from the others. You remove The Bird from the race, and he is your winner. Prior to the Derby, Pioneer had never run on conventional dirt. All you had to go by was his two excellent workouts over the Churchill Downs course and morning gallops. In every case, he proved that the transition from synthetic surfaces to dirt would prove no deterrence as well as having to travel 1 ¼ miles. Both Baffert and owner Ahmed Zayat were confident, and so was I. Handicappers who rely on speed figures, all felt he was too slow to win. Those numbers were over synthetic surfaces which have proven not to translate well to the dirt. (The proof in the pudding is that he earned his highest career “speed figure” in the Derby, and that was over slop. What I cared most about was his consistency, will to win, and his connections.) What should we expect from Pioneerof the Nile in the Preakness? Whether or not Pioneerof the Nile catches a dry or wet surface in the Preakness, what we do know is that he will bring his “A” race, which could be good enough to win. The problem is that he will be facing two legitimate new shooters, the great filly Rachel Alexandra and Big Drama. In Rachel’s case, we know she is an exceptional filly, who is on the brink of stardom. In Big Drama, you have a fresh and fit horse that has superb tactical speed, and just like Pioneerof the Nile, he loves to win. In my gut, I just don’t feel that Pioneer can beat the filly, though he stands a good chance to defeat everyone else.
3 MUSKET MAN 8/1 If you looked up the meaning of the word consistency in the dictionary, it would not have a picture of Musket Man. But, it might as well have. Musket Man was acquired for a mere $15,000 in 2007 by his current connections, and without a doubt, Musket Man has certainly outrun his purchase price, and for that matter, his pedigree as well. Musket Man was viewed to be on the fringes of the main contenders in the Kentucky Derby, even though he annexed the Grade 2 Illinois Derby, and the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, in his two prior starts before shipping into Louisville. Despite being the son of noted sprint sire Yonaguska, he ran well to finish a commendable third at Churchill Downs. Musket Man’s race is even better than it first appears on paper. Approaching the far turn in the Derby, jockey Eibar Coa had an important decision to make. Should he stay inside with Musket Man, save ground, hoping that eventually a hole would open up. Or, just take the overland route, knowing full well he would enjoy clear sailing, but lose precious ground in the process. Coa opted for the latter. And, it cost him, at least second-place, in my opinion. On Derby Day, the inside paths were best, Just ask Calvin Borel. Musket Man lost substantial ground around the far turn, and into the stretch, as he made his bid. Remarkably, he sustained his rally past the eighth pole. But, in deep stretch, his expenditure of valuable energy finally caught up with him. Valiant in defeat, Musket Man was one-paced late. He fell just a nose short of overhauling Pioneerof the Nile for second.While he was no match for Mine That Bird, with a better trip, he surely would have finished second. What can we expect from Musket Man in the Preakness? With Musket Man, what you see is what you get. He basically handles any track, wet or dry. While I think that he would have been second at Churchill Downs with a better trip, that effort will simply not get the job done today. I prefer to use him underneath.
5 FRIESAN FIRE 6/1 Supposedly ready for another go at it in the Preakness, is the Kentucky Derby favorite Friesian Fire. I have to admit that I was more than a little bit puzzled that he was backed down to favoritism in that race. His effort in the Kentucky Derby was just as perplexing. True, he was catching a wet track, which he proved he relished in the Louisiana Derby, when he won by seven lengths. Fair Grounds slop is not the same as Churchill’s. In addition, he worked too fast days before the Derby, and pulled up after the work very tired, which did not help. When I was in the paddock for the saddling of all the horses in the Derby, I did not know what to make of Friesan Fire with his head to the back of his stall and hardly moving a muscle. I took it to mean that he was extremely relaxed, which you want to see when a three year old is running 1 ¼ miles for the first time. But, I was worried that he was too lethargic, and simply had no interest in running. Friesan Fire was reported to have grabbed his quarter, and had sustained several cuts during the running of the Derby. While I do not doubt that to be true, the mere fact that he is even being considered for the Preakness, makes me wonder if those incidents had an inpact on him that day. Friesan Fire reported home next-to-last in a truly disappointing and sub-par effort. Perhaps I was correct in my assumption, that even before being saddled, something was amiss. Many handicappers would be inclined to simply draw a line through Freisan Fire's effort at Churchill Downs. While I can certainly understand, if not agree, with that train of thought, Friesan Fire is still an unproven quantity outside of Louisiana. Despite the fact that he defeated Papa Clem quite handily in the Louisiana Derby, that race was in March. Friesan Fire held a “homecourt advantage” in that contest, having been stabled at the Fair Grounds since November. He had also won two races over that track, both in stakes races. I suppose that his brilliant workouts leading up to the Derby, and the expertise of his trainer, Larry Jones, were reason enough to bring about a sentimental wager or two. However, I am still not convinced that he is capable of winning the Preakness. That’s not to say that he can’t, but he will need to rebound in a big way. What can we expect from Friesan Fire in the Preakness? Since his Derby debacle, Friesan Fire has come back to literally “scorch” the Pimlico track, working an ‘eye-catching’ five furlongs in a lively in 58 2/5 on May 12, enabling trainer Larry Jones to pronounce him good-to-go. Problem is, good-to-go where. Bet down to 7/2 odds in the 20-horse Derby field, he barely ran six furlongs before calling it a day. Now, back on two weeks rest, he’s ready to saddle-up again, hopefully with a more typical effort. What to do, what to do. One thing that can be said, Friesan Fire has never had the chance to reproduce his Louisiana Derby effort. While that race seems like it happened a lifetime ago, that effort, coupled with some sparkling works, propelled him to favoritism at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Any semblance of that effort legitimizes him as a bonafide contender. But whether he can regroup within a short period of time remains to be seen. A win by him would not be shocking, but I do prefer others. And, as we all know, once the gates open, it is anybody’s race.
2 MINE THAT BIRD 6/1 “Freaked”. That is the word that I have heard and seen most often in print, to somehow depict Mine That Bird’s electrifying performance in this year’s Derby. Whether or not you agree with that assessment of his effort in the Run for the Roses or not, one incontrovertible fact remains. Mine That Bird is the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, regardless of how improbable his victory was. Rather than try to rationalize or explain away his unbelievable performance that day, I prefer to just turn the page and direct my attention to today’s race. Because, no matter how hard you might try, no one can reasonably say, with any accuracy, why Mine That Bird blew away the field, closing from dead last, to win by 6 ¾ widening lengths. Can “lightning in a bottle” strike a second time in the Preakness, or for that matter, ever again? Mine That Bird entered the Kentucky Derby starting gate in deserved obscurity, and deservedly so. Yet, when all was said and done, his name was on the lips of thoroughbred handicappers and fans throughout the world. Taken farther off-the-pace than ever before, Mine That Bird could see the entire Kentucky Derby field under new rider Calvin Borel. Seemingly in no particular hurry, Borel was content with his position early on until finally asking Mine That Bird to pick up the pace at the midway point down the backstretch. Wow, did he ever! Mine That Bird fashioned an “Arazi like” burst of late speed, which saw him rapidly make up ground with every stride. He continued to reduce his deficit along the inside, which coincidentally was the best part of the track all afternoon. Mine That Bird, now in full stride, began picking off runners one by one around the far turn. It would only be a matter of time before he would stand the racing world on its ear. After a deft move by Borel to maneuver past a tiring runner, Mine That Bird was then guided back to the rail as he continued his sustained rally. Mine That Bird subsequently squeezed thru a narrow opening along the rail nearing midstretch, to draw alongside Pioneerof the Nile. Eventually, he wrestled the lead away from him, drawing clear with giant strides enroute to a startling victory. The rest, as they say, is history, no matter how incredible it may be. What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Preakness? In all honesty, I really can’t say. His fortunes could be basically tied to the amount of water present in the Pimlico racetrack. With showers in the forecast, a wet track only enhances his chances on Saturday. In the Kentucky Derby, he sprouted water wings and splashed his way home to an upset victory. His form over a dry track leaves something to be desired, and his race in the Preakness will go long way in determining whether his Run for the Roses was an aberration, or he simply benefited from a moisture-laden surface. Then again, maybe both. Even though Calvin Borel has deserted him, he has a capable replacement rider in Mike Smith. One thing I am certain about Mine That Bird in the Preakness, I like him a lot less over a dry surface, no matter who is in the saddle.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13th PIM 6f MdnSpWt 3yo, Purse: $28,000. ( 7:15)/ 6:15/ 5:15/ 4:15
Exacta, Trifecta & Super High 5
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 OUR SECOND SLEW 5/2 Well spotted to register his initial career victory for a good second out barn. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
6 PILANESBERG 2/1 Returns to the main track, which he seems to prefer. Immediately was sent to the lead on April 30 on grass, but gave way readily once displaced on the front end. Sharp 2nd at Penn National over the main track on April 30, showing the way until deep stretch. They have him to catch reuniting with K. Carmouche.
7 SPECIALALTERNATIVE 9/2 Ran “sneaky well” late in his well-bet career debut. Made up significant ground late and now he gets off-the-rail today. Adds blinkers for his second start, a deadly move for trainer Graham Motion. He will also get a change in rider to Jeremy Rose.
8 WHITEHOUSE RIDGE 8/1 Makes his first start. A homebred runner. He is bred to win early in his career. Trainer Hamilton Smith is extremely skilled with debut runners. Sports a steady workout out regimen of late for his unveiling. Gets Lasix. Lures Desormeaux.
Wizard's Preakness selections
Exactas 13-1, 13-9, reverse each for less
* TRIFECTAS
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / ALL = $55
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / 1-2-3-5-9 = $20
$1 Trifecta 1-9-13 / 1-9-13 / 1-2-3-5-9-13 = $24
$1 Trifecta 1-13 / 1-9-13 / ALL = $44
$2 Trifecta Box 1-9-13 = $12
TOTAL TRIFECTA PLAY FOR ALL 5 TICKETS = $155
Exactas 13-1, 13-9, reverse each for less
* TRIFECTAS
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / ALL = $55
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / 1-2-3-5-9 = $20
$1 Trifecta 1-9-13 / 1-9-13 / 1-2-3-5-9-13 = $24
$1 Trifecta 1-13 / 1-9-13 / ALL = $44
$2 Trifecta Box 1-9-13 = $12
TOTAL TRIFECTA PLAY FOR ALL 5 TICKETS = $155
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NOEL MICHAELS / OTB LEARNING LABS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SATURDAY, MAY 16, 2009
PREAKNESS STAKES, PIMLICO RACE 12
#11 Take the Points 30-1
#1 Big Drama 10-1
#13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
#7 Papa Clem 12-1
This Preakness is shaping up to be one of the most interesting and evenly-matched in recent memory, and much value will be there to be had on the tote board thanks to a field full of highly-questionable Kentucky Derby graduates (including the winner), and a favorite who is a filly that has never faced colts who has drawn the poor far outside 13 post
Therefore, with so many question marks clouding this year's Preakness picture, why not try to employ what would have been the winning strategy to follow in the Kentucky Derby? Bet the longshot.
In this case, the longshot I'm referring to is #11 Take the Points (30-1), who has several angles going for him in his favor. First, he's a fresh new shooter who did not go through the grind of the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. That angle worked nicely on a pair of recent occasions when Bernardini won in 2006 and when Red Bullet won in 2000. You'll be getting Todd Pletcher at a price, and a former Maryland-based jockey, Edgar Prado, who knows this track better than any other jockey in the field. Prado is 2-for-2 already aboard Take the Points, and the horse should benefit strongly from this return to the dirt with added blinkers. Don't worry about post 11, recent Preakness winners breaking from posts 8 and outward have included Bernardini (post 8) in 2006, Afleet Alex (post 12) in 2005, Funny Cide (post 9) in 2003, War Emblem (post 8) in 2002, Point Given (post 11) in 2001, and Silver Charm (post 10) in 1998.
The theme of my Preakness picks this year is "new shooters", because I judged this year's Kentucky Derby to be a sub-par race that was missing all three of this year's best 3-year-olds including I Want Revenge, Quality Road, and my second pick in the Preakness, Big Drama
Big Drama had been my pick to win the Preakness until he draw the Preakness "death rail." Only one horse, Tabasco Cat in 1994, has come from the rail post to win the Preakness in the last 48 years since 1960 (Belly Ache). In spite of the dreadful rail handicap, Big Drama is good enough to still hit the exacta vs. this year's Preakness field. He's a game little horse who will be extremely difficult to get past. He's improved each and every time out, he looked terrific in his 3-year-old debut last time out, and flat out has more talent than the rest of these.
Another horse who was disadvantaged by the post draw was Rachel Alexandra, who drew post 13. Outside posts indeed have been good recently in the Preakness, but it's been at least 33 years since a horse has won a 1 3/16-mile race at Pimlico from outside post 12. Considering she'll be a short-priced favorite, that's just too much history to go again the cause of picking Rachel Alexandra on top. That being said, this year's current group of 3-year-old males represented in the Preakness leaves much to be desired, and this filly has shown more talent and ability than pretty much all of them. Can this filly win the Preakness? Absolutely. She's good enough and fast enough. However, I'll put her third because she'll have a lot to overcome, at a short price, in her first start against males from the far outside at the furthest distance she's ever gone.
Finally, for a fourth horse, I'm picking the horse exiting the Derby with the most upside, Papa Clem. Papa Clem doesn't seem to be at his best on wet tracks, which certainly could have hurt him last time in the Derby. Nevertheless, he still finished fourth, beaten only a nose and a head for second. He'll improve if he can get a fast track, and his winning 1 1/8-mile effort in the Arkansas Derby represented the kind of improvement you'd like to see from a 3-year-old contender this time of year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NOEL MICHAELS / OTB LEARNING LABS
Saturday, May 16, 2009[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PIMLICO FULL CARD[/FONT]
5 Scotchontherocks 5-2
8 Malibu Joe 2-1
2 Storms Past 5-1
Race 2: DuPont Distaff
1 Sea Chanter 1-1
5 Striking Tomisue 5-2
1a Skylighter 1-1
Race 3
10 Mythical Hero 6-1
9 Old Timer 12-1
5 Stonestreet Star 9-5
Race 4 William D. Schafer Stakes
3 Ea 3-1
6 Ready Set 5-2
4 Crimson Classic 10-1
Race 5 Top exotic (ex & tri box)
7 Habitual 5-2
10 Cold Orient 6-1
2 Schleprock 4-1
Race 6 Deputed Testimony Handicap
11 Sumacha`hot 2-1
4 Thunder Charm 10-1
2 Take Down Two 10-1
Race 7 Galorette Handicap
8 Dynaforce 4-5
2 All is Vanity 9-2
7 Social Queen 15-1 [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Race 8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes
3 Not for Silver 8-1 Best longshot
7 Nuclear Wayne 4-1
6 Despite the Odds 9-2 [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Race 9 Woodlawn Stakes
Best exacta box
8 Affirmatif 3-5
1 Hero`s Image 12-1
4 Beacon Hill Road 6-1
Race 10 Maryland Sprint Handicap
8 Ravalo 3-1 Best Bet
2 Grand Traverse 5-1
5 Ah Day 5-2
Race 11 The Dixie
4 Kiss the Kid 5-1
3 Parading 9-2
10 Just as Well 10-1 [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Race 12 The Preakness Stakes
11 Take the Points 30-1
1 Big Drama 10-1
13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
7 Papa Clem 12-1
Race 13
5 Our Second Slew 5-2
6 Pilanesberg 2-1
4 Louiegoboldly 12-1
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Confirmed[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Paid for by me
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SATURDAY, MAY 16, 2009
PREAKNESS STAKES, PIMLICO RACE 12
#11 Take the Points 30-1
#1 Big Drama 10-1
#13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
#7 Papa Clem 12-1
This Preakness is shaping up to be one of the most interesting and evenly-matched in recent memory, and much value will be there to be had on the tote board thanks to a field full of highly-questionable Kentucky Derby graduates (including the winner), and a favorite who is a filly that has never faced colts who has drawn the poor far outside 13 post
Therefore, with so many question marks clouding this year's Preakness picture, why not try to employ what would have been the winning strategy to follow in the Kentucky Derby? Bet the longshot.
In this case, the longshot I'm referring to is #11 Take the Points (30-1), who has several angles going for him in his favor. First, he's a fresh new shooter who did not go through the grind of the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. That angle worked nicely on a pair of recent occasions when Bernardini won in 2006 and when Red Bullet won in 2000. You'll be getting Todd Pletcher at a price, and a former Maryland-based jockey, Edgar Prado, who knows this track better than any other jockey in the field. Prado is 2-for-2 already aboard Take the Points, and the horse should benefit strongly from this return to the dirt with added blinkers. Don't worry about post 11, recent Preakness winners breaking from posts 8 and outward have included Bernardini (post 8) in 2006, Afleet Alex (post 12) in 2005, Funny Cide (post 9) in 2003, War Emblem (post 8) in 2002, Point Given (post 11) in 2001, and Silver Charm (post 10) in 1998.
The theme of my Preakness picks this year is "new shooters", because I judged this year's Kentucky Derby to be a sub-par race that was missing all three of this year's best 3-year-olds including I Want Revenge, Quality Road, and my second pick in the Preakness, Big Drama
Big Drama had been my pick to win the Preakness until he draw the Preakness "death rail." Only one horse, Tabasco Cat in 1994, has come from the rail post to win the Preakness in the last 48 years since 1960 (Belly Ache). In spite of the dreadful rail handicap, Big Drama is good enough to still hit the exacta vs. this year's Preakness field. He's a game little horse who will be extremely difficult to get past. He's improved each and every time out, he looked terrific in his 3-year-old debut last time out, and flat out has more talent than the rest of these.
Another horse who was disadvantaged by the post draw was Rachel Alexandra, who drew post 13. Outside posts indeed have been good recently in the Preakness, but it's been at least 33 years since a horse has won a 1 3/16-mile race at Pimlico from outside post 12. Considering she'll be a short-priced favorite, that's just too much history to go again the cause of picking Rachel Alexandra on top. That being said, this year's current group of 3-year-old males represented in the Preakness leaves much to be desired, and this filly has shown more talent and ability than pretty much all of them. Can this filly win the Preakness? Absolutely. She's good enough and fast enough. However, I'll put her third because she'll have a lot to overcome, at a short price, in her first start against males from the far outside at the furthest distance she's ever gone.
Finally, for a fourth horse, I'm picking the horse exiting the Derby with the most upside, Papa Clem. Papa Clem doesn't seem to be at his best on wet tracks, which certainly could have hurt him last time in the Derby. Nevertheless, he still finished fourth, beaten only a nose and a head for second. He'll improve if he can get a fast track, and his winning 1 1/8-mile effort in the Arkansas Derby represented the kind of improvement you'd like to see from a 3-year-old contender this time of year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NOEL MICHAELS / OTB LEARNING LABS
Saturday, May 16, 2009[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PIMLICO FULL CARD[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Horses are in order of preference by program number[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Play the top horse to win, and box all horses in exactas and trifectas[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In other exotics play the top horse with as many others as your budget allows. [/FONT]
5 Scotchontherocks 5-2
8 Malibu Joe 2-1
2 Storms Past 5-1
Race 2: DuPont Distaff
1 Sea Chanter 1-1
5 Striking Tomisue 5-2
1a Skylighter 1-1
Race 3
10 Mythical Hero 6-1
9 Old Timer 12-1
5 Stonestreet Star 9-5
Race 4 William D. Schafer Stakes
3 Ea 3-1
6 Ready Set 5-2
4 Crimson Classic 10-1
Race 5 Top exotic (ex & tri box)
7 Habitual 5-2
10 Cold Orient 6-1
2 Schleprock 4-1
Race 6 Deputed Testimony Handicap
11 Sumacha`hot 2-1
4 Thunder Charm 10-1
2 Take Down Two 10-1
Race 7 Galorette Handicap
8 Dynaforce 4-5
2 All is Vanity 9-2
7 Social Queen 15-1 [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Race 8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes
3 Not for Silver 8-1 Best longshot
7 Nuclear Wayne 4-1
6 Despite the Odds 9-2 [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Race 9 Woodlawn Stakes
Best exacta box
8 Affirmatif 3-5
1 Hero`s Image 12-1
4 Beacon Hill Road 6-1
Race 10 Maryland Sprint Handicap
8 Ravalo 3-1 Best Bet
2 Grand Traverse 5-1
5 Ah Day 5-2
Race 11 The Dixie
4 Kiss the Kid 5-1
3 Parading 9-2
10 Just as Well 10-1 [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Race 12 The Preakness Stakes
11 Take the Points 30-1
1 Big Drama 10-1
13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
7 Papa Clem 12-1
Race 13
5 Our Second Slew 5-2
6 Pilanesberg 2-1
4 Louiegoboldly 12-1
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Confirmed[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Paid for by me
[/FONT]
Wunderdog
PIMLICO Race #4 (THE WILLIAM DONALD SCHAEFER) at 11:45 AM Eastern
PIMLICO Race #4 (THE WILLIAM DONALD SCHAEFER) at 11:45 AM Eastern
Top pick: #2 (REAL MERCHANT) - This runner is coming off his best start since coming here from Chile last year. He just missed last out going a mile at Belmont in a solid field. Looks set for his best in a competitive small field.
<!--p-->2nd pick: #6 (Ready Set) - Nicely set-up by his trainer (Mike Matz). Major stakes winner last year at three finished a strong second in his seasonal debut at Delaware on May 6 to a tough older runner. Win candidate.
3rd pick: #1 (Cave's Valley) - The main speed and he's stationed on the rail. Consistent and Maryland-based runner has a bit of a home field advantage. Must be caught.
4th pick: #3 (Ea) - Gelded son of "Dynaformer" was bred to be a good runner and just now seems to be reaching his potential. Comes into this off his best ever and is an exotics threat.
<!-- / message -->
[FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]JOHN PIESEN RACING [/FONT][FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]
[/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]SATURDAY MAY 16, 2009[/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]Race 12: THE PREAKNESS STAKES
#1 Big Drama 10-1
#13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
#2 Mine That Bird 6-1
#5 Friesan Fire 6-1[/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]SATURDAY MAY 16, 2009[/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]Race 12: THE PREAKNESS STAKES
#1 Big Drama 10-1
#13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
#2 Mine That Bird 6-1
#5 Friesan Fire 6-1[/FONT]
- [FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]Play #1 To Win & Place[/FONT]
- [FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]Play a 1-2-5-13 Exacta & Trifecta Box[/FONT]
DISCREETCATPICKS
Saturday, May 16, 2009
0-for-1 on Friday, as Public Image refused to leave the gate. It's actually twice in a row he's done that now, but the last time was 8 months ago. Speaking for myself, last night was only the second time it's happened to me in 15 years of betting horses. Something is very wrong with that horse.
Pimlico - Race 12
#9 Pioneerof the Nile (5/1 ml)
Lets come right back with our Derby pick here. I respect Rachel Alexandra very much, but at the small price she'll go off at, there are a few issues she'll have to deal with. Big Drama will gun to the lead from the rail, and Rachel may have to be used just a bit from the outside post in order to gain a good stalking position, particularly with Take the Points right to her inside. Nothing major, and i'm sure she'll get a good spot, but she figures to be using more early energy this time around due to that, and also the fractions that Big Drama figures to set thru the first 6 furlongs to a mile. Not really a good thing when stretching out to her longest career distance, especially on the class-jump when she'll have horses like POTN, Papa Clem, and Friesan Fire biding their time right behind her. The other factor is the barn change, as she's no doubt been taken out of her usual routine. What effect that might have, i'm not sure, but she really only has one way to go, and that's down. Great filly, as we all know, but at 8/5 or so i think it's worth trying to beat her. As for POTN, as i mentioned it appears he'll be sitting in a good spot, behind a pace that figures to be pretty fast for the distance. He was moving beautifully around the turn in the Derby, looking every bit the winner until about midstretch when he seemed to falter just a bit. Unbelievably (considering it was the Kentucky Derby), i had read a quote from Baffert a few days before the race saying he hadn't cranked POTN up all the way because he wanted to save something for the Preakness and Belmont (apparently he felt he had a shot at the Triple Crown). So there's a chance that POTN might be more likely to move forward here than some of the others, and of course the Preakness is a sixteenth shorter than the Derby, so that figures to be to his benefit as well, if the Derby distance was just a touch to far for him (as it appeared). Last i heard, POTN was somewhere around 7/1 in the early wagering, and with money contnuing to pour in on Rachel Alexandra throughout the day, it looks a safe bet that that we should get at least 4/1 here, perhaps even a few notches higher depending on how much money the Derby winner takes. Speaking of which, the latest weather report i saw is showing a 60% chance of rain in the last two hours heading into the Preakness, so there's a legit chance the track could be sloppy here. POTN didn't see to have any trouble with the muddy surface in the Derby, so that's fine, but obviously Mine That Bird would have to be given extra consideration on a wet track, particularly with a strong pace to run at.
Hollywood - Race 6
#4 Air Fair (10/1 ml)
Underrated filly is 2-for-2 with today's rider Rosario, with one of those wins being an impressive drawing-away-late score in her only career turf sprint. Slow time that day, but note that she was able to run past horses who had been allowed to set a very slow pace for the downhill course. Also note that Air Fair ran very competitively vs. today's 7/2 ml favorite Silent Stalk in her first two career races. Very possible that Air Fair didn't care for the two turns in her last race, and could bounce back with a strong effort on the return to a turf sprint, particularly with Rosario back in the irons. Worth a play at the big price.
Hollywood - Race 9
#6 Dehere Again (6/1 ml)
Australian import for Mitchell has reportedly been training gangbusters over the Hollywood cushion track, and Mitchell shows a lot of confidence by entering him directly into a graded stakes for his American debut (and Mitchell is 2-for-5 with horses making their American debut, btw). In addition, Dehere Again consistently ran near the lead in Australia, and there isn't much opposing speed in here. Also note that today's rider Aaron Gryder is getting off Northern Soldier to take the call, despite having ridden that one in his last 4 California starts, and most recently shipping into Arizona to ride him in a stakes race there. Looks very live, and should offer a nice price here due to his overseas status and turf-only race record.
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Saturday, May 16, 2009
0-for-1 on Friday, as Public Image refused to leave the gate. It's actually twice in a row he's done that now, but the last time was 8 months ago. Speaking for myself, last night was only the second time it's happened to me in 15 years of betting horses. Something is very wrong with that horse.
Pimlico - Race 12
#9 Pioneerof the Nile (5/1 ml)
Lets come right back with our Derby pick here. I respect Rachel Alexandra very much, but at the small price she'll go off at, there are a few issues she'll have to deal with. Big Drama will gun to the lead from the rail, and Rachel may have to be used just a bit from the outside post in order to gain a good stalking position, particularly with Take the Points right to her inside. Nothing major, and i'm sure she'll get a good spot, but she figures to be using more early energy this time around due to that, and also the fractions that Big Drama figures to set thru the first 6 furlongs to a mile. Not really a good thing when stretching out to her longest career distance, especially on the class-jump when she'll have horses like POTN, Papa Clem, and Friesan Fire biding their time right behind her. The other factor is the barn change, as she's no doubt been taken out of her usual routine. What effect that might have, i'm not sure, but she really only has one way to go, and that's down. Great filly, as we all know, but at 8/5 or so i think it's worth trying to beat her. As for POTN, as i mentioned it appears he'll be sitting in a good spot, behind a pace that figures to be pretty fast for the distance. He was moving beautifully around the turn in the Derby, looking every bit the winner until about midstretch when he seemed to falter just a bit. Unbelievably (considering it was the Kentucky Derby), i had read a quote from Baffert a few days before the race saying he hadn't cranked POTN up all the way because he wanted to save something for the Preakness and Belmont (apparently he felt he had a shot at the Triple Crown). So there's a chance that POTN might be more likely to move forward here than some of the others, and of course the Preakness is a sixteenth shorter than the Derby, so that figures to be to his benefit as well, if the Derby distance was just a touch to far for him (as it appeared). Last i heard, POTN was somewhere around 7/1 in the early wagering, and with money contnuing to pour in on Rachel Alexandra throughout the day, it looks a safe bet that that we should get at least 4/1 here, perhaps even a few notches higher depending on how much money the Derby winner takes. Speaking of which, the latest weather report i saw is showing a 60% chance of rain in the last two hours heading into the Preakness, so there's a legit chance the track could be sloppy here. POTN didn't see to have any trouble with the muddy surface in the Derby, so that's fine, but obviously Mine That Bird would have to be given extra consideration on a wet track, particularly with a strong pace to run at.
Hollywood - Race 6
#4 Air Fair (10/1 ml)
Underrated filly is 2-for-2 with today's rider Rosario, with one of those wins being an impressive drawing-away-late score in her only career turf sprint. Slow time that day, but note that she was able to run past horses who had been allowed to set a very slow pace for the downhill course. Also note that Air Fair ran very competitively vs. today's 7/2 ml favorite Silent Stalk in her first two career races. Very possible that Air Fair didn't care for the two turns in her last race, and could bounce back with a strong effort on the return to a turf sprint, particularly with Rosario back in the irons. Worth a play at the big price.
Hollywood - Race 9
#6 Dehere Again (6/1 ml)
Australian import for Mitchell has reportedly been training gangbusters over the Hollywood cushion track, and Mitchell shows a lot of confidence by entering him directly into a graded stakes for his American debut (and Mitchell is 2-for-5 with horses making their American debut, btw). In addition, Dehere Again consistently ran near the lead in Australia, and there isn't much opposing speed in here. Also note that today's rider Aaron Gryder is getting off Northern Soldier to take the call, despite having ridden that one in his last 4 California starts, and most recently shipping into Arizona to ride him in a stakes race there. Looks very live, and should offer a nice price here due to his overseas status and turf-only race record.
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